The Sahel region of Africa is experiencing rapid urbanization concurrent with intensifying climate change, yet the spatial dynamics of extreme heat in semi-arid urban environments remain critically understudied. This research characterizes land surface temperature (LST) dynamics and thermal hotspots across the Upper Benue River Basin (UBRB) in northeastern Nigeria from 2015 to 2025 using Landsat and MODIS thermal imagery integrated with land use/land cover classification and spatial statistical analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*). Results reveal that basin-wide mean dry season LST increased from 36.8°C in 2015 to 38.5°C in 2025, representing a statistically significant warming of 1.7°C over the decade (Sen’s slope = 0.17°C/year, p < 0.01), with urban centers warming at rates 2–3 times faster than surrounding rural areas. Thermal hotspots (LST ≥ 90th percentile, >41.2°C) now cover 2,530 km² (6.4% of the basin), concentrated in Taraba State (1,240 km², mean 44.6°C) around the Jalingo urban cluster and degraded riparian zones, Adamawa State (980 km², mean 43.9°C) in the Yola North–Jimeta conurbation and Numan industrial corridor, and Gombe State (310 km², mean 42.3°C) in the Gombe urban core. Built-up areas across Jalingo, Yola North, Jimeta, Numan, and Gombe exhibit mean LST of 42.6°C compared to 35.2°C for vegetated surfaces, with NDVI and impervious surface fraction explaining 79% of LST variance. Critically, 847 km² (33.5%) of thermal hotspot area overlaps with high flood susceptibility zones, placing an estimated 1.2 million residents—two-thirds in informal settlements—in compound hazard conditions, with the Jalingo floodplain showing 74% of built-up area affected, the Yola North–Jimeta corridor showing 65%, and Gombe low-lying sections showing 52%. The 38% expansion of built-up area and 15% decline in vegetation over the decade confirm unplanned urbanization as the primary driver of intensifying heat risk, while the Getis-Ord Gi* analysis confirms statistically significant (p < 0.01) high-LST clusters with Global Moran’s I of 0.87 (p < 0.001), indicating extremely strong spatial autocorrelation where hotspots coalesce into large contiguous clusters that amplify the Urban Heat Island effect through positive feedback mechanisms. These findings provide the empirical foundation for targeted nature-based interventions including urban greening in Jalingo, Yola, Numan, Jimeta, and Gombe, heat-resilient building codes requiring reflective roofing and permeable surfaces, compound hazard-informed land use planning that prohibits new residential construction in very high hazard zones, and an urban climate monitoring system to enhance resilience in the UBRB and analogous Sahelian cities.
Keywords: Compound Hazard, Land Surface Temperature, Upper Benue River Basin, Urban Heat Island, Sahel Urbanization, Thermal Hotspots.
Citation: Mark, J. M., Zirankuthii, Y. S., Oruonye, E.D., & Musa Hassan (2026). Cooling the Sahel’s expanding cities: Land surface temperature dynamics and urban resilience planning in Nigeria’s Upper Benue River Basin. Adv Earth & Env Sci; 7(3):1-16. DOI : https://doi.org/10.47485/2766-2624.1094