Small Island Developing States (SIDS) confront escalating compound shocks, yet conventional adaptation frameworks remain anchored in hazard exposure (14% of food system impact variance, R² = 0.14) rather than redistribution capacity, which mediates 42% of outcomes (spatial lag ρ = –0.58, p < 0.001) (Rogers & Fotsing, 2026). This study provides the first empirical test of a reserve-island hub strategy for decentralized food system resilience in Vanuatu, leveraging territorial comparative advantages across fragmented archipelagos. Using Redistribution Capacity Index (RCI) and Hollow Recovery Index (HRI) data across six provinces and 71 area councils (2019–2023), we document RCI collapse from pre-shock baseline 0.87 to 0.18 during COVID-19 maritime closures, with only partial recovery to 0.58 post-Judy/Kevin cyclones. Four resilience archetypes emerge from the Food Security Resilience Framework (FSRF): buffered stronghold (Sanma, FSRe = 61), moderate (Malampa, 58), hidden hotspot (Torba, 57), and critical-fragile (Shefa/Tafea, 46–47). Maritime connectivity explains post-shock outcomes more strongly than exposure: port access correlates at r = 0.58 (p < 0.001); shipping frequency at β = –0.63 (p < 0.001). Northern surplus provinces (>600 kg/person/year; RCI 0.62–0.70) anchor southern deficits (247 kg/person/year; RCI 0.45) through dual circulation: customary networks activate within 72 hours (65,000 reached in Sanma pre-formal aid), complemented by formal redundancy. The reserve-island framework transforms production–consumption mismatch into adaptive advantage, validated through spatial lag mediation analysis.
Implementation requires $12 million over 10 years (benefit-cost = 2.3), aligning with GCF/NAP readiness and Sendai Target E. Policy priorities:
- maritime decentralization via chief-led MoUs;
- RCI/HRI dashboards;
- hidden-hotspot investment (Torba);
- Pacific Redistribution Resilience Index for archipelagic SIDS monitoring.
Keywords: Reserve-island hubs; redistribution capacity; hollow recovery; compound shocks; food system resilience; Vanuatu; SIDS adaptation.
Citation: Tsolocto, A. et al., (2026). Decentralized Resilience Hubs as Territorial Anchors: Operationalizing Multi-Scalar Food System Adaptation in Vanuatu Through Reserve-Island Strategies. J N food sci tech, 7(3):1-14. DOI : https://doi.org/10.47485/2834-7854.1069